This map helps explain why some European countries reject refugees, and others love them

来源：The Washington Post

翻译：Z.K.

As hundreds of Germans held up_”Welcome Refugees” signs last weekend, much of Europe watched in bewilderment. “Germany is the only country that is welcoming us,” said _Alalie, a 37-year-old from Damascus, Syria, and one of the thousands of refugees who arrived at the main train station in Munich.

上周末，成百上千的德国人举起牌子对难民的到来表示欢迎，许多欧洲人对此表示十分困惑。_Alalie今年37岁，来自叙利亚大马士革，是成千上万来到慕尼黑火车总站的难民之一，他说：“德国是唯一一个欢迎我们的国家”。

Nearly all of the refugees had come from Hungary — a country with restrictive immigration policies and where many said the authorities had treated them inhumanely. But why are there such deep divides within Europe? Why do some countries welcome refugees, while others do everything they can to keep them out?

几乎所有的难民都来自匈牙利，这个国家的移民政策十分苛刻，并且许多人表示，他们受到了当局的不人道待遇。但是为什么同在欧洲，德国和匈牙利有着这么大的不同呢？为什么有些国家欢迎难民，但是其他国家想尽办法把难民拒之门外呢？

The reasons are many, but one stands out: demographics. In Germany, for instance, a rapidly aging population is becoming increasingly aware of the need to welcome foreigners. Other countries, where the aging trend is much less severe, have fewer incentives to welcome newcomers.

原因有很多，最突出的一个是：人口问题。比如说，在德国，人口迅速老龄化让人们日益意识到需要欢迎外国人。人口老龄化速度没那么快的其他国家对欢迎外国人并不是很感冒。

A closer look at the following maps, which compare demographic trends across Europe between 2001 and 2011, helps explain some of the reasons Europe is so divided on how to deal with refugees. The maps not only offer explanations: They also show which nations might be missing out on an opportunity for future growth.

下面这张图对2001到2011十年间欧洲人口发展趋势做了一个纵向对比，对这张图的进一步分析可以帮助解释为什么欧洲诸国在对待难民问题上有着如此大的差异。这张图不仅做了解释，并且还指出哪些国家可能失去了一个未来发展的机会。

Germany welcomes refugees to ease its rapid population decline

德国欢迎难民，以缓解其人口迅速下降

Empathy and the country’s Nazi-past — which turned Europe into a battlefield and later forced many Germans themselves to flee the war — might explain the country’s enthusiasm for helping today’s refugees. But there is another factor that few would openly acknowledge right away: Germany really needs them.

同情心和国家的纳粹历史也许可以解释为什么德国人对帮助今天的难民如此热情。将欧洲变成了战场，后来迫使许多德国人逃离战争。但是有一个很少会公开承认的另一个因素：德国确实需要他们。

“What we’re experiencing right now is something that will occupy and change our country in the coming years. We want this change to be positive,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday. She was referring to a popular argument in the country’s discourse on immigration in recent months: Germany is shrinking rapidly, and the trend is expected to get worse in the coming years. By 2060, there will be only about 68 million to 73 million people in Germany, according to current predictions by the country’s statistical office — compared with about 81 million now.

本周一，德国总理默克尔表示：“我们正在经历的将在未来几年改变我们的国家，我们希望这种改变是正面的。”她指的是国内近几个月关于移民话题的讨论中一个普遍的观点：德国人口正在迅速萎缩，并且这种趋势在未来几年将会变得更加糟糕。根据国家统计局目前的估计，到2060年，德国人口将会缩减至6800万到7300万之间，而现在的人口是8100万。

Already today, Germany lacks young, skilled workers. Companies are unable to fill hundreds of thousands of jobs because they cannot find enough applicants. On Sunday, Dieter Zetsche, the head of car manufacturer Daimler, said in a newspaper interview: “Most refugees are young, well educated and highly motivated. Those are exactly the people we’re searching for.” European Muslims are indeed on average eight years younger than the rest of the population, a Pew Research Center study found. Daimler and other companies now want to search for applicants in refugee reception centers to fill their vacancies. Meanwhile, a first job portal has been launched on a Web site that is supposed to connect refugees with potential employers.

目前，德国缺少年轻的技术工人。公司是无法填补成千上万的就业机会，因为他们没法找到足够的求职者。本周日，汽车制造商戴姆勒的负责人Dieter Zetsche在接受一家报纸采访是表示：“大多数难民年轻，受过良好教育并且积极性很高。这正是我们需要的人。”皮尤研究中心的一个研究发现，欧洲穆斯林的平均年龄的确要比其他人的平均年龄小八岁。戴姆勒等公司现在想在难民接待中心寻找求职者以填补他们的空缺。同时，首个找工作的门户网站已经建立起来了，这个网站可以帮助难民和潜在的雇主建立联系。

The influx of refugees could also benefit German society as a whole. The country’s welfare system — one of the world’s most generous — is increasingly strained because more retirees have to be financed by fewer working-age and tax-generating citizens. Today, there are three working-age Germans per retiree. By 2060, however, that ratio will be less than 2 to 1, according to the European Commission. In a recent oped Astrid Ziebarth of the German Marshall Fund, a think tank, called Germany’s response to the refugee crisis “as pragmatic as idealistic.” Many Germans might support the influx of refugees for moral reasons right now, but economic reasons might become a bigger part of the political debate in the future, when the challenges of the sudden increase in immigrants become more apparent.

难民潮对德国整个社会也有好处，这个国家的福利制度，是世界上最为慷慨的福利制度之一，现在正在缩水，因为越来越多的退休人员必须由更少的劳动者和纳税公民提供资金。现在，每一个退休人员就有3个适龄劳动者。然而根据欧盟委员会的预测，到2060年，这个比例会缩减到小于2:1。德国智囊团马歇尔基金会的Astrid Ziebarth在最近的报纸评论版上将德国应对难民危机的反应称为“朴实的理想主义”。许多德国人现在只是从道德层面上支持难民的涌入，但是当移民突然增加的挑战变得更明显时，经济原因有可能成为未来的政治辩论中更大的一部分。

Sweden takes in many refugees, but for different reasons

出于不同的原因，瑞典接纳了许多难民

Such economic thinking makes Germany distinct from Sweden, which has recently taken in the highest number of refugees in Europe per capita, despite having a population that isn’t declining. Its government has historically been among the world’s most accommodating when it comes to refugees, which explains Sweden’s quick reaction in the current crisis. Although the Swedish government allows asylum-seekers to work immediately, chances of finding a long-term job are low. Nearly half of all foreign-born people ages 25 to 64 are unemployed.

这样的经济思维让德国不同于瑞典，在欧洲，瑞典接纳了人均数量最多的难民，尽管其本国人口并没有下降。瑞典政府在对待难民问题上一直是史上最为宽松的政府之一，这也解释了瑞典在当前的危机中的快速反应。尽管瑞典政府允许寻求庇护者立即工作，但是找到一个长期职位的机会非常低。几乎有一半25岁到64岁的外国人没有工作。

“There just aren’t many jobs anymore for the very low-skilled,” Tino Sanandaji, a Swedish economist with the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, was quoted as saying by Al Jazeera English. In contrast, most unfilled jobs in Germany are offered by technical manufacturers and do not require previous knowledge because workers will be taught in apprenticeship programs. Whereas Germans are particularly looking for engineers and workers with technical skills, many Swedish job vacancies require either European higher education degrees or excellent knowledge of the Swedish language.

半岛电视台英文频道引述了工业经济研究院的瑞典经济学家Tino Sanandaji的话，“这里没有太多适合那些低技能人们的工作”，然而与之相反的是，在德国大多数空缺职位是由技术制造商提供的，不需要以往的知识，因为工人可以在学徒计划中学习技能。德国尤其需要具有技术能力的工程师和工人，而瑞典的岗位空缺需要的是具有欧洲高等教育学位或者精通瑞典语的人才。

Britain already has one of Europe’s most diverse and stable populations
英国是欧洲人口最多样化和稳定数量的国家之一

Britain is among Europe’s demographic exceptions: It is predicted to become Europe’s most populous country by 2060 thanks to immigration and fertility rates that are higher than most of its neighbors, according to the European Commission.

英国是欧洲人口结构的一个例外：根据欧盟委员会的估计，由于移民和高于大多数邻国的人口出生率，到2060年，英国将成为欧洲人口最为稠密的国家。

Despite Germany’s efforts to attract foreigners and Britain’s reluctance to do so, current forecasts predict a migrant proportion of 14 percent for Britain, but only 9 percent for Germany by 2060. In Britain, Prime Minister David Cameron has recently focused on a resettlement program for 20,000 additional refugees that would allow in some of the weakest. British commentators have said this strategy puts moral considerations over economic interests, obviously referring to Germany.

尽管德国热情和英国不情愿，但是根据当前的预测，到2060年，英国总人口的14%为移民，而德国的移民数量只占总人口的9%。在英国，首相戴维·卡梅伦最近忙于一个额外的2万难民的安置方案。英国评论家认为，这一战略的提出是基于道德上的考虑而非经济利益，显然，这是针对德国的。

Suggestions that Britain is acting more morally than Germany and Austria might sound cynical in those countries: Last weekend alone, 20,000 refugees arrived in Munich, the same number of people Britain now wants to additionally resettle within five years.

对于英国表现的比德国和奧地利更有道德的暗示听起来有点讽刺:仅仅上周就有2万难民抵达慕尼黑，跟英国计划在五年内安置的难民数量一样多。

Nevertheless, the British government’s stance is supported by a majority of the population. Fears of economic competition and worries over being able to assimilate more foreign-born migrants could explain why such sentiments persist.

不过，英国政府的立场得到了大多数公民的支持。对经济竞争的恐惧和对够吸收更多外国出生的移民的担忧可以解释为什么这种情绪依然存在。

France is cautious because of a persistent rift within its society

法国表现谨慎，因为其社会内部存在着一个持久的裂痕

Like Britain, France is among the few countries in Europe with a growing population, thanks to immigration and a high fertility rate. What is particularly striking about the country is its nationwide population growth, even in rural areas.

与英国一样，因为移民和高出生率，法国是欧洲少有的几个人口还在增长的国家之一。法国整个国家范围的人口增长，甚至是在农村地区，人口数量也在增长，尤其引人注目。

Meanwhile, the country is on persistently high alert: In Paris and in the rest of the country, police officers and soldiers patrol the streets to prevent potential terror attacks. January’s attacks targeting a Jewish supermarket and editors critical of Islam have not helped to bridge the rift between France’s growing immigrant population and its white majority. Although only 7.5 percent of the French population is Muslim, conservative politicians are worried about changes in demographics: Jean-Francois Cope, who later became the president of France’s major UMP party, said in 2012: “There are areas where children cannot even eat their ‘pains au chocolat’ because it’s Ramadan.” Cope was referring to a story about a non-Muslim child whose chocolate pastry was snatched during the Muslim month of fasting.

同时，国家一直高度警戒，在巴黎和全国其他地区，警察和士兵在街上巡逻，以防止可能发生的恐怖袭击。一月份针对犹太人超市和批评伊斯兰教的编辑的攻击加剧了不断增长的移民人口和占国家主体的白色人种之间的矛盾。尽管只有7.5%的法国人是穆斯林，保守的政治家仍然担心人口结构的变化，后来成为法国人***动联盟的主要政党总统的Jean-Francois Cope在2012年说，“因为斋月，在某些地方孩子甚至不能吃他们的巧克力面包。”科普指的是一个关于非穆斯林的孩子，他的巧克力点心的穆斯林斋月期间被抢走的故事。

Being confronted with such provocative statements, President François Hollande continued to follow the country’s guidelines to regard all citizens as equal. What might sound like a logical and supportive idea has worrying implications. Many French migrants feel neglected by the country’s government because the “all citizens are equal” approach has until recently limited most affirmative action programs. Such programs, which are common in the United States, would be necessary to help sons and daughters of migrants escape poverty and job discrimination. France, however, does not collect data on its citizens’ race, ethnicity or religion, which has made it difficult to prove discrimination.

面临这样的挑衅性言论，总统François Hollande继续遵循所有公民平等的国家指导方针。这是一个听起来合乎逻辑，可以获得支持的观点却有着令人担忧的影响。许多法国移民觉得受到了法国政府的忽视，因为“人人平等”的方针限制了大多数权力平等行动方案。这些方案在美国是很普遍的，对于帮助移民的子女摆脱贫困和就业歧视很有必要。但是法国不收集公民的种族，民族或宗教信息，使得歧视难以证明。

However, smaller studies have shown that applicants with foreign-sounding names have much lower chances of getting jobs, and another survey documented a feeling among many children of immigrants that they are not considered as French by others.

然而，较小的研究表明，那些名字听起来像外国人的申请人得高工作的机会要低得多，申请人与外国冠冕堂皇的名字都找工作低很多的机会，另外一个调查记录了许多移民孩子的感受，他们觉得自己没有被其他人当做是法国人。

In France, it might be not so much the absence of migrants that is a threat to its future, but rather the government’s difficulties in finding a way to assimilate and support a large share of the country’s neglected population. All this explains why the French willingness to accept more refugees will likely remain fairly limited.

在法国，缺少移民对于法国的未来来说也许不是什么大问题，问题是政府很难找到一个方案来支持吸收相当大比例被忽视的人口。这些就解释了为什么法国愿意接受难民，但是接纳的数量仍然有限。

Hungary — and much of eastern Europe — is missing out on a demographic opportunity
匈牙利和许多东欧国家错过了一个增加人口的机会

Contrary to France, many Eastern European countries face a population decline. Nevertheless, they refuse to take in more refugees. Hungary, which has recently built a border fence, has become the most prominent case: The country’s prime minister claimed last week that he was defending European Christianity against a Muslim influx. “Everything which is now taking place before our eyes threatens to have explosive consequences for the whole of Europe,” he wrote in the op-ed. “We must acknowledge that the European Union’s misguided immigration policy is responsible for this situation.”

与法国相反，许多东欧国家正面临着人口下降的问题。然而，他们拒绝接纳更多的难民。匈牙利最近建立了一个边界围栏，已成为最突出的案例：该国总理上周称，他是为了捍卫欧洲基督教防止穆斯林的涌入。他在一个专栏上写道，“眼下发生的一切会造成严重的后果，危及整个欧洲，我们必须承认，欧盟对移民政策的误导要为现在的情况负责。”

The country’s demographic decline, however, could also be considered critical: By 2030, Hungary’s population will have decreased by 5.8 percent. The country is among Eastern Europe’s most rapidly shrinking nations. Others are performing even worse: Demographic research institute Infostat recently concluded that Slovakia was rapidly aging and concluded its society had “to be prepared for … the integration of a higher number of foreigners (often from very different cultures).” In recent days, Slovakia made headlines for exactly the opposite approach: It publicly announced it would accept only Christian refugees — no Muslims. Other countries with similar demographic forecasts, among them Estonia and Bulgaria, also want to limit the influx of Muslim refugees.

然而该国的人口下降问题相当严重，到2030年，匈牙利的人口将缩减5.8%，是东欧人口下降最快的国家。其他国家情况更差，人口研究所Infostat最近得出结论，斯洛伐克人口正在迅速老龄化，它的社会已经“必须为…更多的外国人(往往来自其他文化)融合做好准备”。然而，斯洛伐克却因为与此完全相反的行为而登上头条。斯洛伐克宣布只接受基督教难民，不接受穆斯林。其他有类似人口问题的国家如爱沙尼亚，保加利亚也希望限制穆斯林的涌入。

There might be reasons for such thinking: high unemployment and weak economic performance, for instance. Academically, there’s no consensus on whether population growth always leads to economic growth. However, Eastern Europe’s policies will not simply be forgotten: Countries like Hungary and Slovakia probably won’t attract many Muslim migrants in the future, even if they should suddenly realize they urgently need younger foreigners.

这种想法也许是有原因的，比如高失业率和经济疲软。在学术上，人口增长是否总是导致经济发展，这一点并没有达成共识。然而，东欧的做法也不会被轻易遗忘，像匈牙利和斯洛伐克未来可能不会吸引到许多穆斯林移民，即使他们突然意识到，他们迫切需要年轻的外国人。