Population forecasts

The world’s biggest country

Aug 15th 2015 | From the print edition

来源：Economist
翻译：Z.K.


That India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country is not in question. But the date has just moved closer. The UN now reckons India will surpass China in 2022 rather than in 2028, as it thought two years ago. The new estimates put China’s fertility rate a bit lower, at 1.6 children per woman. India’s higher fertility rate (2.5 children per woman) and younger population mean it will swell faster, reaching 1.4 billion in 2022, when China’s population will peak. China’s working-age population is already shrinking as the country greys. India will eventually follow. By 2050 about 500m Chinese will be over 60, and 330m Indians.

毫无疑问，印度将超越中国成为世界上人口最多的国家。但是超越中国的日期要提前了。UN两年前预测印度人口超越中国的时间是2028年，但是现在他们认为到2022年，印度人口就会超越中国。根据新的估计，中国的人口出生率小一些，平均每个妇女会生下1.6个孩子。印度的出生率要高一些(平均每个妇女会生下2.5个孩子)。并且印度的人口结构更为年轻，这意味着人口增长会更快，到2022年，印度人口将达到14亿，中国人口也将达到顶峰。中国的劳动年龄人口数量正在缩减，国家正在衰老。印度最终也会走上这条路。到2050年，中国将会有5亿人口年龄超过60岁，印度将有3.3亿。